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Showing posts with the label Geopolitics

Drones, Drama, and Dysfunction

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Poland’s leaders unite (briefly) as Russian drones cross the border Russian drones slipping into Polish airspace yesterday did what years of political manoeuvring, bitter infighting, and ego-driven posturing couldn’t: they forced Poland’s president and prime minister to act like grown-ups—for a few hours, at least. Karol Nawrocki, Poland’s MAGA-blessed president who rode a long-shot election win into office only weeks ago, has been waging a public street fight with Donald Tusk, the seasoned prime minister who’s seen more political cycles than Warsaw has seen renovations. Until the drones showed up, their main battlefield was X (yes, the platform formerly known as Twitter, where serious statesmen now reduce diplomacy to schoolyard taunts. Nawrocki was still basking in the glow of his White House photo-op with Donald Trump—where he somehow managed to extract promises of not just maintaining but maybe even increasing America’s 10,000 troops in Poland. He crowed that Tusk hadn’t pulled off...

Ideology, Markets, and the Temptation of Tariffs

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If dealmaking means wielding the threat of catastrophe to secure incremental gains, then Donald Trump has long mastered the art. His approach to global trade has been one of brinkmanship—leveraging the threat of tariffs to force concessions. His February 3rd move to grant Canada and Mexico a 30-day reprieve from a punishing 25% tariff on automobiles was a textbook example of this strategy. In exchange, he secured a modest but tangible boost in border security cooperation, including 10,000 additional Mexican troops and a reiteration of prior commitments. Was this "dumbest trade war in history" also the shortest? Investors seem to think so. When Trump initially threatened tariffs, the S&P 500 dropped 3%, only to recover more than half its losses after his deal with Mexico. But this optimism may be misplaced. The assumption that Trump’s trade aggression is merely a negotiating tactic underestimates its potential for long-term disruption. The reality is that his trade war may...