Posts

Showing posts with the label economy

The Illusion of Savings: Why the Trump-Musk DOGE Initiative Won’t Fix America’s Budget

Image
Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), launched under President Donald Trump, claims to be slashing U.S. federal spending by eliminating fraud, cutting wasteful contracts, and shutting down entire agencies. Musk has promised $2 trillion in annual savings, yet government spending has remained virtually unchanged since Trump took office. Despite DOGE’s high-profile cuts—including the closure of USAID and reductions in diversity and inclusion programs—official Treasury data contradicts Musk’s claims, showing that federal spending has actually increased slightly, averaging $30 billion per day, up from $26 billion under Biden. One major challenge is that only about 10% of the budget is realistically within DOGE’s control. The majority of federal expenditures (about two-thirds) are mandatory spending on Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, while another 10% is allocated to interest on national debt. Even if Musk eliminated all government fraud—estimated at $233 billi...

Ideology, Markets, and the Temptation of Tariffs

Image
If dealmaking means wielding the threat of catastrophe to secure incremental gains, then Donald Trump has long mastered the art. His approach to global trade has been one of brinkmanship—leveraging the threat of tariffs to force concessions. His February 3rd move to grant Canada and Mexico a 30-day reprieve from a punishing 25% tariff on automobiles was a textbook example of this strategy. In exchange, he secured a modest but tangible boost in border security cooperation, including 10,000 additional Mexican troops and a reiteration of prior commitments. Was this "dumbest trade war in history" also the shortest? Investors seem to think so. When Trump initially threatened tariffs, the S&P 500 dropped 3%, only to recover more than half its losses after his deal with Mexico. But this optimism may be misplaced. The assumption that Trump’s trade aggression is merely a negotiating tactic underestimates its potential for long-term disruption. The reality is that his trade war may...

Big Tariff Shock Looms

Image
Even if your company has never faced tariffs and has no direct dealings with China, Canada, or Mexico, prepare for potential impacts from the second Trump administration's tariff policies, as highlighted by PwC experts at the 2025 Tax Policy Media Breakfast. According to Chris Desmond, PwC’s US global trade services principal, tariffs could deliver "a big shock to the operating model" for unprepared companies. However, there's substantial uncertainty around which countries will be targeted, the scale of tariffs, their implementation timeline, and even their actual imposition. Krishnan Chandrasekhar, PwC US tax leader, emphasized the role of tariffs as negotiation tools, a dynamic exemplified by the rapid escalation and de-escalation of US-Colombia tariff threats on January 26. In this unpredictable environment, PwC recommends that business leaders engage in extensive scenario planning. Finance leaders should thoroughly understand how different tariffs could affect the...

Why “Experts” Are Often Wrong

Image
Introduction In an age where we’re constantly surrounded by “experts,” it’s natural to wonder: how much do they really know? We see experts making predictions, giving advice, and influencing decisions in almost every aspect of society—from economics to medicine to psychology. Yet, it often feels like their conclusions can be as variable as the weather, leaving us to question their credibility. Are experts truly experts, or is their authority overestimated? In a world where information is easy to access but difficult to validate, distinguishing between genuine expertise and overconfidence is more crucial than ever. This article explores what expertise is, how it varies across disciplines, and why a healthy dose of skepticism can be valuable when navigating fields marked by high levels of uncertainty. By understanding what constitutes expertise—and where it can falter—we can make better-informed decisions and cultivate a balanced view of expert opinions. The Nature of Expertise: Stabilit...

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon on the US economy

Image
Jamie Dimon, JP Morgan Chairman and CEO, joins Halftime Report live to discuss the market, real estate, lending and more.

In the News

Image
Economy Booms, Gaming Gets Trimmed, and WWE Founder Faces Serious Allegations: Your Daily Dose of Headlines Boom Boom Boom! The US economy just blew Wall Street's predictions out of the water, growing 3.3% in the last quarter – way better than the expected 2%. This marks a steady climb from 2022 and fuels talk of the Fed giving interest rates a haircut later this year. Strong consumer spending, thanks to rising wages and a rock-solid job market, powered this economic surge, even with inflation showing signs of cooling down (from 5.9% to a more manageable 2.7%). Meanwhile, in the video game realm... Microsoft's gaming division is having a leaner year. They just made some cuts, axing 1,900 employees (mostly from Xbox and Activision Blizzard). This amounts to 8% of their entire gaming workforce. The news comes after their big Activision Blizzard acquisition and some significant leadership changes, including CEO Bobby Kotick's departure in December and now Blizzard President Mi...

Mobile industry is integral to Africa’s growth

Image
The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) estimates that, if effectively harnessed, digital trade in Africa has the potential to contribute an additional $180bn to the continent’s GDP by 2025. Despite this tremendous potential, e-commerce in Africa is currently underutilised. A major report prepared and published by the mobile phone industry body the GSMA in collaboration with the UK’s Department for Business and Trade points to the ways in which mobile commerce is going to be integral to the continent’s growth. We report from its launch at the 2023 Mobile World Congress in Kigali, Rwanda. Read the full article HERE .

Is This A Golden Age of Fraud?

Image
How "passive income" money-making scams seem to have taken over the world, and the economic implications of such scams.

Tipping, Explained: Why Two-Thirds of Americans View It Negatively

Image
You’re being asked to tip more and more places today. If you’re annoyed, you’re not alone. A survey by Bankrate found a third of people are annoyed by those pre-entered tip screens. The vast majority of people are still tipping servers or wait staff at sit-down restaurants but tipping much less frequently when picking up takeout or grabbing coffee.

Global Banking Annual Review 2023: The Great Banking Transition

Image
Banking profits are up, thanks to rising interest rates, but financial institutions globally need to reinvent themselves in the face of major structural and macroeconomic shifts. Check out McKinsey's just published report HERE .  

Will China become the Next Japan?

Image
China's economy is struggling, but it is unusually similar to how Japan's economy struggled nearly thirty years ago. In this video, we explore the parallels between the two nations, the causes behind Japan's so-called "Lost Decades", and the warnings of China facing a balance sheet recession. Can China avoid the recession, or is it due to become the next Japan?

95,000 Hours Saved: Unique Ways Companies Are Tackling Worker Frustration

Image
As more workers say they’re less engaged on the job, some companies are taking steps to improve the day-to-day experience for employees.  WSJ’s Russell Adams joins host J.R. Whalen to discuss why the changes don’t always include pay raises.

What's the future of crypto?

Image
The financial revolution once promised by cryptocurrencies has been knocked off course by regulators and allegations of fraud.  So what does the future hold for crypto?

What is the Federal Reserve doing to tame inflation?

Image
Research Affiliates founder and chairman Rob Arnott breaks down the Federal Reserve's decision to pause rate hikes for first time in 15 months on 'Barron's Roundtable.'

How Jerome Powell Became the U.’S. Most Powerful Economic Voice

Image
Jerome Powell, as the chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve, appears to hold the country’s economic health in his hands. It’s a coveted role that has earned him both praise and criticism. Fed Chair Powell prioritizes data and does not necessarily focus on fighting inflation or boosting employment.

US Banking Crisis: The Truth Behind The Disaster

Image
Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and Silvergate bank have all collapsed throwing up a warning signs that something horrible is happening in the economy. But what's the truth here? This is a story of incompetence, a changing economic environment and political lobbying.

Why a strong dollar isn't as good as you think

Image
The U.S. dollar is the world’s dominant currency and plays a key role in global trade. While that may seem like good news to Americans, it’s bad news for much of the world.  “So here’s the paradox. The rest of the world despises how dominant the dollar is, yet they go to the U.S. dollar, because there really isn’t much of an alternative,” said Eswar Prasad, an economist at the Brookings Institution and professor at Cornell University.  Despite constant predictions of the dollar’s demise, nearly 60% of the world’s central banks’ foreign exchange reserves – the money the hold to cover unexpected financial emergencies – are invested in dollar-denominated assets.  The share of the U.S. dollar as a payment currency worldwide is more than 40%, while it makes up more than 60% of international debt and 50% of loans globally.  Besides being the go-to currency for international financial transactions, commodities such as oil are also bought and sold in U.S. dollars.  The ...