SET Training - Banking and Fintech

By Stanley Epstein -  Introduction The U.S. economy in 2025–2026 presents a mixed picture. Growth continues, but at a slower pace. Inflation has eased from prior peaks yet remains visible in essential goods. Confidence remains fragile. At the center of the debate lies trade policy — specifically the aggressive use of tariffs as a tool of economic “punishment.” The evidence suggests a sobering conclusion: broad tariffs have not delivered their stated macroeconomic goals and have instead imposed measurable costs on U.S. consumers and firms. The Current Economic Backdrop U.S. GDP expanded by approximately 2.2 percent in 2025, below historical long-run averages and slower than earlier post-pandemic growth phases. Official data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis confirms this moderation in output growth. See https://www.bea.gov . Job creation has softened relative to prior years, with uneven sectoral performance. Consumer confidence readings published by The Conference Board remain ...

If dealmaking means wielding the threat of catastrophe to secure incremental gains, then Donald Trump has long mastered the art. His approach to global trade has been one of brinkmanship—leveraging the threat of tariffs to force concessions. His February 3rd move to grant Canada and Mexico a 30-day reprieve from a punishing 25% tariff on automobiles was a textbook example of this strategy. In exchange, he secured a modest but tangible boost in border security cooperation, including 10,000 additional Mexican troops and a reiteration of prior commitments. Was this "dumbest trade war in history" also the shortest? Investors seem to think so. When Trump initially threatened tariffs, the S&P 500 dropped 3%, only to recover more than half its losses after his deal with Mexico. But this optimism may be misplaced. The assumption that Trump’s trade aggression is merely a negotiating tactic underestimates its potential for long-term disruption. The reality is that his trade war may...