Operating in the Fog of Conflict - How organisations can stay resilient in a world of constant disruption

By Stanley Epstein - 

Introduction

Conflict is no longer something happening “somewhere else". It has become a constant feature of today’s global environment.

Recent tensions involving Iran are a good example of how quickly things can change. A region that felt stable a few months ago can suddenly become a source of global concern.

The data backs this assertion up. There are multiple active conflicts and even more areas of rising tension around the world. Many of them are getting worse, not better.

The takeaway is simple: geopolitical disruption is not occasional anymore. It is part of the system organisations operate in.

The Ripple Effects Go Everywhere

Conflicts don’t stay contained within borders. Their effects spread quickly.

Even organisations with no direct presence in a conflict zone can feel the impact. Energy prices can spike. Supply chains can break. Sanctions can disrupt payments. Cyber threats can increase.

This happens because everything is connected. Global supply chains, financial systems, and digital networks are tightly linked.

When one part is under pressure, the effects travel fast.

Resilience, therefore, cannot be local. It has to be built across the entire organisation.

Preparing for Uncertainty (Not Predicting It)

One of the biggest challenges is that conflict is hard to predict.

Even the best geopolitical experts often get the timing or direction wrong. So, trying to forecast events perfectly is not a practical strategy.

A better approach is to be ready to operate under uncertainty.

This means focusing on three key things. First, making decisions quickly using reliable information. Second, ensuring that different teams work together effectively. Third, constantly monitoring what’s changing.

It also helps to build geopolitical awareness into the organisation. That includes tracking security developments, economic signals, sanctions, and even misinformation.

But the goal is not to collect more data. It is to turn information into better decisions, faster.

Supply Chains: The Hidden Risk

Supply chains are one of the fastest ways geopolitical risk spreads.

Even if your direct suppliers are in safe locations, they may depend on inputs or routes that are not. This creates hidden vulnerabilities.

More organisations are now mapping their supply chains in detail to understand these dependencies.

They are also looking for alternatives—different suppliers, routes, or regions.

Diversification can be expensive. But in a volatile world, it is often worth it to reduce risk.

Don’t Forget the Human Side

Geopolitical disruption affects people, not just systems.

Employees may feel anxious due to constant news coverage or personal connections to affected regions. This can impact focus, morale, and productivity.

Organisations that handle this well communicate clearly and regularly. They provide support where needed and make sure employees understand policies around travel and safety.

There is growing evidence that organisations that support their people during crises perform better overall.

In simple terms, resilience depends on trust.

Leadership Matters More in a Crisis

When conflict drives disruption, decisions need to be made quickly—often with incomplete information.

This is where leadership becomes critical.

Clear roles, strong coordination, and fast decision-making can make a big difference. Confusion or delays can make things worse.

Regular communication across teams helps keep everyone aligned. Clear escalation paths ensure that issues are handled at the right level.

In a crisis, unclear responsibilities are not just inconvenient—they are a real risk.
Testing for the Unexpected

No organisation can predict every possible scenario.

But it can prepare for how it will respond.

Disruptions often appear in unexpected ways—cyber incidents, communication failures, or sudden supply interruptions.

Running simulations and scenario exercises helps teams practise responding to these situations.

Testing does not remove uncertainty. But it makes organisations less vulnerable to surprises.

Conclusion

Modern conflicts affect far more than the battlefield. They disrupt economies, supply chains, and organisations in real time.

Those that manage this environment well tend to do a few things consistently. They stay aware of what’s happening, invest in their people, diversify their risks, and enable strong leadership.

The goal is not to predict the future.

It is to keep operating effectively, no matter what happens.

My Musings

We often talk about resilience as if it is something we can fully control. I am not sure that’s true.

Sometimes what we call resilience may simply be good timing, positioning, or even luck. When multiple conflicts interact, the system becomes too complex to manage perfectly.

There is also the issue of cost. How much investment in resilience is enough before it becomes inefficient?

Then there is information overload. Organisations are told to monitor everything—but at some point, more data can confuse rather than clarify.

Even leadership is not straightforward. Quick decisions can help, but they can also increase risk if they are wrong.

So perhaps the real question is this:

Are organisations becoming truly adaptable—or just more complicated in how they respond to disruption?

I suspect many are becoming more complex, not necessarily more resilient.

And that raises a final question worth thinking about:

Where do you draw the line between being prepared and being over-engineered?